Goldman Sachs Says the Recent Copper Surge is Unlikely to Last

Copper prices have climbed sharply in recent weeks, buoyed by optimism over a potential trade breakthrough between China and the United States and renewed fears of mine shortages in key producing countries. The rally reflects investors’ growing confidence in the red metal’s long-term role in the global energy transition, yet analysts are questioning whether the momentum can be sustained amid uneven demand growth. 

This past week saw copper reach a new high of $11,200 per ton, surpassing its previous peak of $11,104.50. The surge has been driven by speculative inflows and tight short-term supply expectations. However, the broader market picture suggests that these gains may prove difficult to maintain. 

Despite this surge, analysts have voiced reservations on whether the rally could persist without a steady rise in demand. In a statement, Goldman Sachs explains that the anticipated supply tightness in the copper market is unlikely to materialize within the next six months. It projects that the market will show a modest surplus in 2026, even with a notable reduction in global refined output. 

The bank argues that this outlook aligns with its $10,500 per ton price target for copper in 2026, noting that unless there is a sustained decrease in visible global copper inventories which are currently on the rise, it expects investors to begin unwinding long copper positions by early next year as the market-tightness narrative fails to take hold. 

Additionally, the firm observed that while investor exposure in LME copper remains elevated, COMEX open interest is still relatively subdued compared to its Q2 peak from last year. This suggests scope for additional speculative inflows into the U.S. market, which could temporarily lift LME prices in the near term. 

Analysts also point out that much of copper’s future trajectory will depend on the pace of Chinese industrial activity and global manufacturing recovery. As China accounts for more than half of global copper consumption, any slowdown in its construction, power grid expansion, or electric vehicle sectors could weigh heavily on prices. 

Overall, while the short-term sentiment around copper remains upbeat, Goldman Sachs warns that the rally may soon run out of steam unless demand fundamentals improve meaningfully. The bank advises investors to closely monitor inventory data, production trends, and Chinese consumption patterns over the coming months as key indicators of whether copper’s latest surge has staying power. 

With volatility likely to persist, market participants are advised to remain cautious as shifting macroeconomic conditions and currency fluctuations could further influence copper’s price trajectory. 

Companies like Aston Bay Holdings Ltd. (TSX.V: BAY) (OTCQB: ATBHF) that are engaged in exploring for copper resources will have a finger on the pulse of the red metal’s market since any new developments could impact the implementation of their strategic plans. 

NOTE TO INVESTORS: The latest news and updates relating to Aston Bay Holdings Ltd. (TSX.V: BAY) (OTCQB: ATBHF) are available in the company’s newsroom at https://ibn.fm/ATBHF 

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