Tight Liquidity Causes Gold to Stutter as 2026 Gets Started

A recent analysis has determined that prices of gold dropped in the first trading sessions of the year, with spot gold dropping by over 4%. While prices did start the week at a low of $4,274 an ounce, they recovered slightly, increasing to $4,542 an ounce by the week’s end. 

This is quite a decrease from the highs recorded last year when prices rose by almost 65% year-on-year. The rally was partly driven by decreasing inflation concerns and a weaker greenback. Expectations that the Fed would begin reducing rates of interest also helped drive the rally, with many expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least twice this year. 

Lower rates of interest usually decrease the opportunity cost of holding assets like gold, which makes the precious metal even more attractive to investors. 

However, uncertainty remains around the timing and scale of potential interest rate cuts. Recent economic data has sent mixed signals, leaving policymakers with limited room to move too quickly. As a result, some investors have adopted a wait-and-see approach, contributing to the cautious tone in precious metals markets. 

At the moment, geopolitical tensions are a possible catalyst for renewed interest in the metal as more investors seek safe haven assets globally. This comes after the United States launched an attack on Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, and captured the country’s president, Nicolás Maduro. 

Over the short term, the gold market’s outlook is mixed. Some analysts caution that following the strong gains recorded in 2025, prices may now be overstretched, raising the possibility of a short-term pullback. 

In contrast, others point to steady central bank buying as an important factor supporting prices, noting that many countries continue to shift foreign exchange reserves into gold. This trend is part of a broader effort by many emerging market economies to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, with countries like China and Russia playing a prominent role in increasing gold holdings. 

Latest figures show that China’s gold reserves stand at 73.96 million ounces. Meanwhile, physical demand in Asia has shown improvement following the recent dip in prices. In China, local prices moved from a discount to a premium of about $3 an ounce over international spot prices, indicating stronger consumer interest. 

In India, dealers were also charging premiums of up to $15 an ounce above official domestic rates this week, a sharp turnaround from last week’s discount of $61 per ounce. As the year progresses, many analysts, including those at firms like Numa Numa Resources Inc., will be watching how developments around the world impact the gold market. 

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