Citi, Goldman Stay Bullish on Copper Amid Ongoing Supply Pressures

Major financial institutions remain optimistic about copper prices even as the industrial metal trades close to historic highs, with analysts expecting tight supply and firm demand to keep the market elevated in the months ahead. Among the most bullish is Goldman Sachs, which has raised its year-end copper forecast to $13,735 per ton. This is over 10% higher than its earlier projection of $12,465 per ton. 

Citigroup is even more optimistic, predicting copper could reach $14,500 per ton in June and climb to $15,000 within the next 12 months. 

The stronger outlooks follow broader comments from HSBC, which warned that commodities could face a “super-squeeze” triggered by disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Copper is currently trading just under $14,000 per ton on the London Metals Exchange, roughly $500 below the all-time high recorded in January. 

So far this year, the metal has gained around 10%, a much better performance than gold. 

In its statement, Goldman said the upward revision reflects a weaker global supply outlook and tightening market conditions outside the United States. The bank pointed to ongoing disruptions at the Kamoa-Kakula operation and Indonesia’s Grasberg mine. Ongoing seismic disruptions and subsequent flooding at the Kakula underground mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to impact the Ivanhoe Mines’ operations. 

At the Grasberg mine, wet material flooded the mine’s Block Cave, leading to the loss of several workers’ lives. Both sites experienced major setbacks in 2025 and are not expected to return to full production capacity before 2028. As a result, Goldman cut its global mine supply forecast by 350,000 tons. 

The bank also highlighted stronger-than-expected U.S. copper imports and declining stockpiles in other regions as additional drivers supporting prices. Analysts expect long-term demand from electrification projects and the global energy transition to continue underpinning the market, although American tariff policies remain a potential risk. 

Goldman analysts noted that America’s copper imports exceeded expectations in the first half of this year, adding that they anticipated another acceleration in imports in the coming months as arbitrage opportunities remain open. 

Additionally, they argued that the copper deficit outside the U.S. could widen sharply to more than 600,000 tons from an earlier estimate of 60,000 tons. Citigroup analysts shared a similar outlook, noting that concerns over possible U.S. tariffs on refined copper could continue to support market sentiment. 

They also cited slower mine supply growth and growing demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure and clean energy investments. For enterprises like Numa Numa Resources Inc. that are engaged in exploring for copper deposits, these bullish outlooks could signal a possible surge in investor interest as focus shifts to companies whose operations are geared at addressing the supply-side factors behind current price movements. 

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