The start of this month saw the price of copper surging past $13,000 per metric ton. This comes after strong demand from electric vehicles and AI data centers drove prices higher by 40% in 2025.
John Meyer, an analyst at SP Angel, argues that the red metal’s prices need to increase even more to encourage miners to generate substantial new output. He explains that many mines have exceeded their intended operating capacity for years, with operational setbacks at major mines globally only strengthening concerns about tightening supply.
An example of this is the mud rush event at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which saw seven miners trapped underground, with two later confirmed deceased. Over in northern Chile, hundreds of miners began the year on strike at the Mantoverde copper and gold mine.
This comes as the recent surge in demand fueled by concerns over supply disruptions and the possibility of instability in Venezuela, following the attack on Caracas by the United States as well as the subsequent capture of President Nicolás Maduro. While Venezuela is not a producer of refined copper, the U.S. placing the country under temporary control has underscored broader vulnerabilities in global critical-mineral supply security.
According to Concord Resources’ Research Director Duncan Hobbs, recent developments in the South American country have sharpened market focus on critical minerals and supply-chain security, helping drive gains across metals, including copper.
This year, Citi analysts project refined copper output of 26.9 million tons, pointing to a shortfall of roughly 308,000 tons. Meeting longer-term demand will require significant investment in new capacity, though analysts argue this is unlikely without materially higher prices. Meyer argues that copper prices would have to be above $13,000 a ton for companies to afford building new mines.
Market tensions have been compounded by the prospect of the United States imposing import tariffs on the red metal, which is a key input for power and construction. This has driven substantial inflows of metal into the country, largely from LME-registered warehouses. While potential tariffs remain under review, refined copper was excluded from duties introduced on August 1st.
As of January 2nd, copper holdings in Comex-approved warehouses had surged by around 400% since April 2025, to nearly half a million short tons. Alice Fox, an analyst at Macquarie, estimates that a further 360,000 tons are being held off exchange domestically. She adds that the data indicates a global surplus exceeding 500,000 tons in 2025.
For exploration and development companies like Collective Mining Ltd. (NYSE American: CNL) (TSX: CNL), the race is already on to identify and prepare new sources of copper and other minerals to address the needs of the coming decades.
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