Over the last year, we’ve seen various warnings of a copper shortage, which have led the metal’s price to new highs. This is different from recent figures, which show that the biggest metal exchanges globally currently hold over 1.1 million metric tons of the red metal. This is quite a feat, especially considering holdings are at their highest in over two decades.
While the majority of holdings were held by warehouses in the U.S. in 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses have recorded huge inflows since this year began.
Since the start of the year, worldwide exchange inventory has increased by 300,000 tons, suggesting that the red metal’s rally has constrained demand from the manufacturing sector.
Notably, copper stocks on the CME recently recorded a drop, for the first time since last year. This signals a reduction in last year’s momentum, when America’s threat of imposing tariffs on refined copper saw traders ship vast amounts of the metal into the country. In 2025, refined copper imports into the U.S. hit 1.4 million tons, an increase of more than 600,000 tons when compared to 2024 figures.
The majority of this metal was stored in CME warehouses, which saw exchange stocks rise to 536,000 tons recently.
With the momentum slowing down and market sentiment shifting, inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have climbed sharply, increasing to 272,475 tons since the year began. Meanwhile, the Yangshan premium fell to an 18-month low of $22 per ton in January. The premium is widely used as a gauge of China’s copper import demand.
Admittedly, higher stock levels and softer import demand are typical in the period leading up to China’s Lunar New Year holiday. However, the Year of the Horse has yet to officially begin, and exchange inventories have already exceeded last year’s seasonal high. In addition, China appears to hold sufficient surplus supply to potentially contribute to restocking at LME warehouses.
At the end of January, copper from China made up roughly 70% of LME-warranted inventories, with fresh deliveries continuing to arrive daily at LME warehouses in Taiwan and South Korea.
Total LME registered stocks have climbed by 40% thus far into the year, surpassing 203,000 tons, while off-warrant material has increased to 90,720 tons. As a result, time-spreads have weakened. The key LME cash-to-3-month spread, which was in backwardation as recently as November, has shifted into a broad contango of more than $100 per ton.
For companies like Collective Mining Ltd. (NYSE American: CNL) (TSX: CNL) that operate within the copper ecosystem, the current market dynamics on the supply side call for careful analysis as they make their projections since investor interest could be impacted in case the currently high prices experience a correction to reflect the realities within the market.
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