China’s demand for copper has undergone a significant shift in recent years, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) emerging as its top supplier. Once reliant on Chile and Peru, China is now sourcing an increasing share of its copper from Africa’s richest copper-producing nation. This shift is reshaping global trade patterns and strengthening China’s grip on the Congolese mining sector.
In 2024, China imported 1.48 million metric tons of refined copper from the DRC, marking a 71% increase from the previous year. This surge has positioned the DRC as China’s largest supplier of refined copper, significantly outpacing Chile, whose shipments to China fell to an 18-year low of 578,000 tons. The DRC now accounts for 36.7% of China’s total copper imports, compared to just 10% in 2020.
The rapid growth is largely fueled by China’s significant investments in the DRC’s mining sector. Chinese companies dominate the region, with major firms like CMOC Group ramping up production. CMOC’s copper output soared by 55% in 2024, reaching 650,000 tons, while other Chinese operators continue expanding their projects.
There are several key factors that are contributing to Congo’s rising importance in the global copper market:
- Chinese Mining Investments– China has strategically invested in Congolese mines, securing a steady supply of copper and its by-product, cobalt.
- Increased Production– The DRC recently surpassed Peru to become the world’s second-largest copper producer, trailing only Chile.
- Declining Chilean Exports– Chile’s production challenges and lower shipments have allowed the DRC to gain market share.
- Limited Exchange Options – Congolese copper is not widely accepted on major commodity exchanges, meaning most of it is sold directly to China at a discount.
Despite rising copper imports, China’s actual demand remains uncertain. In 2024, China’s total copper imports reached 4.04 million tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous year. However, this demand is not confirmed by economic indicators. Manufacturing activity has been contracting, and copper prices have struggled to stay above $9,500 per ton. This raises questions about whether China’s high copper imports are driven by real demand or simply an oversupply from Congo.
The Lobito Corridor Project, a railway expansion connecting Congo’s mines to the Angolan port of Lobito, could offer new export routes beyond China. This could allow more Congolese copper to reach Western markets, potentially reducing China’s dominance. However, for now, Chinese-owned mines will likely continue shipping most of their metal to China unless strong financial incentives arise to redirect exports elsewhere.
As the DRC’s production expands, its role in the global copper supply chain will only grow stronger. Whether due to demand or excess supply, the flow of Congolese copper to China is set to continue shaping global trade. As other producers like Arizona Metals Corp. (TSX: AMC) (OTCQX: AZMCF) emerge, it will be interesting to watch how the dynamics of this market shift.
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