Indonesia is set to surpass its 2023 sales after forecasted shipments for January and February 2024 soared by almost 25% in comparison to the same months in 2023. The country, which is the largest exporter of thermal coal globally, is expected to record more than 90 million metric tons of thermal and thermal bituminous coal sales in the first two months of this year.
Last year, total exports from Indonesia surpassed 504 million tons. This has many expecting that exports this year will go even higher. The top markets for Indonesian coal thus far include China, the Philippines, South Korea, Japan and India. These countries were also major importers of coal in 2023.
With regard to volume, China imported more than 29 million tons in February 2024, representing a 9% drop in total imports recorded over the same period last year.
This may not be complete information though. Based on tracking data, more than 21 million tons of cargo do not show a confirmed final destination on the manifests. Most of these ships are probably heading to China, given the country is the biggest consumer of coal. However, this cannot be confirmed until the current break ends.
India’s coal imports for this month also passed 13 million tons, making this its highest quantity imported since February 2020. In total, India imported almost 101 million tons of Indonesian coal in 2023. Data also shows that exports to Malaysia, South Korea, Japan and the Philippines dropped in comparison to January and February 2023. However, it is expected that once ship manifests are updated, increases in volumes may be recorded.
One driver of coal demand in the aforementioned countries will be the economy of China rebounding from the plunge recorded in 2022. A persisting debt crisis has stifled the heavy industry and construction sectors in China. In an effort to revive growth, Beijing is planning to announce new measures in March at its next parliamentary meeting.
If the measures are successfully implemented, the use of energy and industrial activity will increase in China as well as other regions of Asia as product and material suppliers up production. Vietnam’s use of coal and industrial activity is also expected to increase if the economic growth of China improves.
The recovery of China’s construction industry is also expected to increase demand for construction parts and materials throughout the supply chain, which pours into Vietnam in form of steel and cement plants.
As the coal exports from Indonesia show, the world may still need coal producers such as Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE: BTU) for longer than advocates for transitioning away from fossil fuels would wish. Setting up sufficient and reliable renewable energy sources is proving to be harder than initially thought.
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