A report released recently by Adamas Intelligence predicts that the overall market for magnetic rare earth oxide minerals will shoot up from its current size of $2.98 billion to $15.65 billion by 2030.
The report indicates that the major driver for this massive growth is the total demand for these magnet rare earths, a demand which is anticipated to grow at a 9.7% CAGR, as well as the price of the metals, which is expected to grow at a 5.6 to 9.9% CAGR over the review period. The report also adds that raw material shortages will play a key part in this market.
Adamas Intelligence predicts that as a result of the absence of both new and secondary sources starting with 2022 and beyond, worldwide shortages of praseodymium (Pr.), neodymium (Nd.), and didymium oxide, or its oxide equivalent, is likely to increase to 16,000 tons by 2030. This shortfall is approximately equal to three times the annual output of Lynas Corp. or three times the approximate production of rare earths oxides by MP Materials.
The market research firms also forecast that the shortage of Pr., Dy. and Nd. oxide is likely to have a knock-on effect by triggering a worldwide shortage of neodymium magnet to the tune of 48,000 tons each year by 2030. This shortfall alone is equal to the approximate amount needed to manufacture between 25 and 30 million EV traction motors.
Speaking of traction motors, EV traction motors, electric bicycles, commercial EV motors, electric scooters and motorcycles are anticipated to command a 23% share of all the demand for neodymium oxide powders and alloys across the world every year until this decade comes to a close.
The market research firm forecasts that the electric vehicle sector alone will consume one ton of each batch of four tons of neodymium oxide powder or alloy produced worldwide in 2030.
The authors explain that a number of factors were considered while coming up with the forecast. One factor was the coupe in Burma/Myanmar, which is the main exporter of these rare earths to China. The country’s instability has triggered a rise in metal prices in addition to reducing the reserves of the magnetic rare earths that China had stockpiled. Another reason cited is the reentry of the United States into the Paris Agreement as well as the ambitious plans of the U.S. to electrify vehicles on its roads. All those factors are working in sync to create the future shortfalls that the report forecasts.
Given that the report highlights how important the electric vehicle sector is going to be with regard to demand for rare earth oxides, mining companies such as Excellon Resources Inc. (TSX: EXN) (NYSE American: EXN) (FSE: E4X2), which extract other EV minerals, including zinc and silver, are likely to see an upsurge in the demand for the minerals they produce.
NOTE TO INVESTORS: The latest news and updates relating to Excellon Resources Inc. (TSX: EXN) (NYSE American: EXN) (FSE: E4X2) are available in the company’s newsroom at https://ibn.fm/EXN
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