In early 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo suspended cobalt exports in an effort to influence global prices and shift to a quota system. The country is the biggest producer of the metal, supplying over 70% of the world. Between 2026-2027, the country expects to export a total of 96,600 tons of the metal annually.
While this shift toward a resource-nationalist strategy is a positive for the country, it does also impose significant new structural limits on the global cobalt supply chain.
By capping annual exports at 87,000 tons through 2027 and diverting 9,600 tons per year into a strategic stockpile, the government is moving beyond routine regulatory intervention. These actions signal a broader transition away from purely market-led extraction toward deliberate, state-directed control of critical mineral resources.
Forecasts anticipate a global shortfall of approximately 10,700 tons this year, with total consumption projected to rise to 292,300 tons. This outlook represents a substantial difference from the surplus environment observed in early 2025.
Are there alternative cobalt sources?
Well, Indonesia’s mixed hydroxide precipitate output has emerged as the most significant alternative cobalt feedstock. This year’s production is forecast to reach roughly 67,500 tons of cobalt, a more than 140% increase from an estimated 46,300 tons produced last year. This expansion equates to an incremental increase of about 21,200 tons year-on-year.
Despite this rapid growth, these additions compensate for only around one-fifth of the anticipated reduction in DRC’s supply. This means that the scale of new Indonesian output is insufficient to meaningfully replace the more than 100,000 tons removed from the African country’s supply, underscoring the limits of substitution through alternative producers.
Is recycled cobalt an option?
In 2025, secondary cobalt recovery totaled roughly 30,000 tons, with this year’s projections pointing to approximately 36,000 tons. Long-term forecasts suggest continued expansion, with recycled cobalt potentially hitting 65,000 tons by 2030. If demand growth stabilizes, secondary sources could supply up to 35% of the total market by 2035.
However, realizing this potential hinges on supportive economic conditions and advances in battery recycling infrastructure.
From the above, we can see that the projected shortfall marks a decisive shift from surplus conditions to structural scarcity, demanding adaptive strategies throughout the supply chain. Effective responses require not only awareness of immediate supply bottlenecks but also insight into long-term changes reshaping the global critical minerals landscape.
The market’s evolution also reflects broader transformations across critical minerals, where resource nationalism intersects with industrial strategy. Therefore, a clear understanding of these dynamics is increasingly vital for navigating a commodity environment in which geopolitical considerations play a central role in determining material access and availability.
Geopolitical dynamics will also certainly play a factor in the market for other commodities, such as natural hydrogen that companies like MAX Power Mining Corp. (CSE: MAXX) (OTC: MAXXF) focus on.
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